### Table 7: Continuous Rating Model — PanelGLS

| Specification | OADR/Z₁ Coef | (SE) | Spline/Other | (SE) | N | R² |
|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| 1. Demographics Z + controls | 3.05 | (4.75) | - | - | 890 | 0.015 |
| 2. OADR + controls | -1.75 | (2.26) | - | - | 890 | 0.007 |
| 3. OADR spline (20%) | 8.86** | (4.01) | -17.49*** | (5.79) | 890 | 0.136 |
| 4. OADR + lagged fiscal stress | -1.92 | (2.41) | - | - | 733 | 0.080 |
| 5. Predetermined OADR+10 | -1.31 | (2.47) | - | - | 629 | -0.015 |
| 6. Dynamic (lagged rating) | 0.27 | (0.28) | lag_rat: 0.95*** | (0.01) | 729 | 0.882 |

*Dependent variable: rating_numeric (21-point S&P scale). PanelGLS with AR(1) correction.*
